линки недели - 543

Jul. 14th, 2025 00:03
stas: (Default)
[personal profile] stas

Для нашего же блага

1. Obama Judge Blocks Defunding of Planned Parenthood in OBBB
Это натуральный ползучий госпереворот - распределение денег это чётко прописанная в Конституции функция Конгресса. Если запреты Трампу перекрывать краники можно было как-то ещё обьяснять - дескать, это функция Конгресса, то вмешательство в прерогативы Конгресса напрямую - это просто неприкрытый харчок в лицо избирателям и полное игнорирование конституционного права. Какие-то оправдания и попытки законного обоснования давно отброшены. Просто - можем тянуть бабло, и будем тянуть всеми силами. "Я на 16 аршинах здесь сижу и буду сидеть!"

2. Rep. Comer Says Biden's Doc Took the 5th
Not suspicious at all.

3. Court Overturns Douglass Mackey Meme Conviction
Хорошо. Совершенно вздорное и антиконституционное обвинение.

4. Former GOP chair slapped with felony over not masking at WA state election center in 2024
В 2024! Т.е. совершенно открытая война с республиканцами, ничего не стесняясь давно.

Dozens of swastikas

5. Antisemitism Is Why Kamala Didn’t Pick Josh Shapiro as Her Running Mate
Oft evil will shall evil mar.

6. Около 60 врачей-евреев покинули Британскую медицинскую ассоциацию из-за антисемитизма

7. Антисемиты тем временем уже и в FreeBSD пробрались.

8. Egyptian TV host: Protocols of the Elders of Zion aims at destroying Islamic societies by means of a ‘soccer craze’
Да, футбол - это тоже еврейский заговор, а вы как думали?

9. Маша Гессен требует переопределить антисемитизм, чтобы антисемиты-демократы не включались
И переопределят, уверен в этом.

10. Томас Фридман: наибольшая угроза для евреев в мире это Израильское правительство
Аргумент тот же, он никогда не меняется - они там раздражают антисемитов, а мы, бедные колумнисты Таймс, от этого страдаем, нас могут на приём не пригласить. А ведь мы, тем временем, не покладая сил трудимся, чтобы поддерживать шатающуюся израильскую демократию - ведь для демократии необходима критика правительства, а уж кто, как не мы, критикуем любое (правое, конечно) израильское правительство на все корки! И вот она, чёрная неблагодарность...

Граница на замке

11. Newsom donor's cannabis farm under federal investigation for 'child labor violations'
Если у кого-то были какие-то вопросы, в чём там дело... И я уверен, что дети-нелегалы вовсе не приняли решение трудиться на канабисовой ферме добровольно.

12. LA to give cash cards to illegal immigrants who stop going to work over fear of ICE raids
Т.е. реально платят нелегалам просто за то, что они нелегалы. Потому что демократам от них только это и нужно.

Нас бережёт

13. Bondi Explains She Was Going To Release The Epstein Files But Then Some Pedophiles Asked Her Not To
Pretty much this.

14. Austin fire chief who denied resources ahead of Texas flooding prioritized 'increasing diversity'

15. 'Hand To God, I Know The Names': Alan Dershowitz Says He Knows Who's On The Epstein List
On the list that we've just been told does not exist. Got it.

16. Six Secret Service agents suspended over failures during Butler, PA assassination attempt on Trump
За полный провал всей цели существования Секретного Сервиса шестерых стрелочников наказали отпуском на месяц и переводом на более лёгкую работу. Всё.

17. Key supervisors who signed off on the Butler security plan and two who were on the final walkthroughs before the J13 rally were never disciplined but instead received BIG PROMOTIONS
Трамп, не Трамп - ничего не меняется. Последствий никаких, ответственности никакой.

Antifada

18. Here are the 10 Trantifa goons charged with ambushing a Texas ICE facility to kill federal officers
Ну вот пожалуйста, вооружённая группа, атакующая федеральных чиновников. Инсуррекция, как по книжке. И абсолютно никого не парит - левые только одобряют.

19. In April, Washington State Rep. Pramila Jayapal and Harvard Kennedy School's Erica Chenoweth, "who studies nonviolent civil resistance against authoritarianism," announced a series of trainings to get the mob ready for the anti-Elon Musk, anti-DOGE, and anti-Tesla protests.
И не только одобряют - они прямо тренируют инсургентов. Совершенно открыто и ничего не боясь.

20. Texas Democrat openly calls for 'dead ICE agents' in Los Angeles

21. Pink haired protesters are ramming Mexican flags into the tires of U.S. military vehicles & smashing the flagpoles against the windows — amid an immigration raid at a cannabis farm in Camarillo, CA.
I don't understand - what the fuck is going on? Why aren't every single one of them arrested?

22. Oregon federal judge orders release of trans suspect charged with firebombing, shooting up Tesla dealership
Поэтому они такие наглые. Они знают, что партийные судьи их всегда отмажут.

COVID-1984

23. Our findings suggest that the overall incidence of new-onset autoimmune diseases in children remained relatively stable during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study indicates a potential association between COVID-19 vaccination and an increased risk of developing autoimmune diseases, necessitating further research to elucidate long-term effects in the pediatric population.
Safe and effective, effective and safe.

Международная панорама

24. UN Launches Task Force to Combat Global “Disinformation” Threat
Or, in normal language, censor speech UN does not approve.

25. In Bradford, Muhammad from Pakistan attempted to rape a 13-year-old British girl.
His wife intervened to defend him: "He didn’t know it was illegal. Please, I promise he will never do this again."
These are new Britons. I liked the old ones better - but then again, they are the reason it all happened.

26. Каково было реальное состояние иранской ядерной программы накануне бомбардировки?
vak: (Default)
[personal profile] vak
Вид с холма поверх крыш Сигтюны, древней столицы Швеции.



Развалины церкви 12 века в Сигтюне.



На пристани в Сигтюне.



Парк на берегу озера в Сигтюне.



Стокгольм, вид на старый город Гамла-Стан.



Стокгольм, на центральной пристани.



Стокгольм, статуя основателя города Birger jarl.



"Голубой зал" городской ратуши. Здесь проходит торжественный банкет вручения Нобелевских премий.

[syndicated profile] marginal_revolution_feed

Posted by Tyler Cowen

The first half was more fun than I was expecting, though overall I cannot call it a good movie.

The core message is that AI, drones, biotech, and nanotech will elevate the power of private companies and individuals over states, and this is likely to prove unstable on an ongoing basis.  Whether or not you agree, I found that a consistent and also important theme to pursue.

One should not conclude that Superman is obviously one of the good guys, no matter how noble his intent.  I found that interesting too.  The filmmakers hint at the logic of growth models, and Garett Jones.

Unlike what some commentators have suggested, I did not view the movie as intending much explicit commentary about either immigration or Israel vs. Hamas.  Still, you can spot a few references to each.

The main flaws of the film are a) stupidity, b) excess reliance on multiple climactic yet never compelling supposedly climactic battle scenes, c) lame portrayals of villains, and d) lack of interest in being truly cinematic.

I can report that I did not walk out, but it does not come close to the dramatic impact of the original Christopher Reeve installment.

The post *Superman* (some general observations, no real spoilers) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

vak: (Default)
[personal profile] vak
Пробуем латинскую кодировку для русского языка. Вот скрипт, перекодирующий произвольный текст.

Odnaždy, v stud́onuü zimńuü poru
Ä iz ĺesu vyšel; byl siĺnyj moroz.
Gĺažu, podnimaëtśa ḿedĺenno v goru
Lošadka, v́ezuşaä hvorostu voz.
I šestvuä važno, v spokojstvii činnom,
Lošadku v́ed́ot pod uzdcy mužičok
V boĺših sapogah, v polušubḱe ovčinnom,
V boĺših rukavicah… a sam s nogotok!
«Zdorovo, parnişe!» — Stupaj śeb́e mimo! —
«Už boĺno ty groźen, kak ä pogĺažu!
Otkuda droviški?» — Iz ĺesu, v́estimo;
Ot́ec, slyšiš, rubit, a ä otvožu.
(V ĺesu razdavalśa topor drovośeka.) —
«A čto, u otca-to boĺšaä śemä?»
— Śemä-to boĺšaä, da dva čelov́eka
Vśego mužikov-to: ot́ec moj da ä…—
«Tak von ono čto! A kak zvat́ t́eb́a?» — Vlasom.—
«A koj t́eb́e godik?» — Šestoj minoval…
Nu, ḿortvaä! — kriknul maĺutočka basom,
Rvanul pod uzdcy i bystŕej zašagal.

Sunday assorted links

Jul. 13th, 2025 16:14
[syndicated profile] marginal_revolution_feed

Posted by Tyler Cowen

1. AI and government debt.  If real resources go up enough (a big if, admittedly), I think we are set.  I would not worry so much about the transfers embedded in real interest rates.  Furthermore, the key issues are those of political economy, namely whether U.S. repayment remains credible.  In the major scenarios, the debt-wealth remains doable even without AI.

2. Grok predicts the next Nobel Prize in economics.

3. “Latest data indicate that material from Europa’s subsurface ocean is interacting with charged particles at its surface.

4. LLMs calling each other names.

5. “Thousands of businesses and households are waiting to connect to the Dutch grid, forcing network operators to ration power in an early indicator of what other European countries are likely to suffer as the speed of electrification increases.” (FT)

6. “If everyone hypothetically went from having five kids to having four kids, that would mean one less sibling for each child. But it would yield a much bigger decrease in first cousins: Instead of a child having four aunts or uncles who each have five kids—20 cousins—they would have three aunts or uncles who each have four kids, for a total of 12.”  Atlantic link here.  And: “Only about 6 percent of adult cousins live in the same census tract (typically about the size of a neighborhood); the rest live an average of 237 miles apart.”

7. A left-wing essay on right-wing sports commentary.

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

[syndicated profile] 70sscifiart_feed

Oh wow that's so cool! Thanks for thinking of me - I knew about a very similar album cover for that band, also by Angus McKie, but I didn't know that they performed in costume like Daft Punk! Very fascinating old-school animation as well.

You actually just reminded me about an old post about gondolas in sci-fi art that I've had sitting around in my draft since... uh Feb 2019, haha. Just posted it here - it has that other album cover I mentioned.

I think I'll look into the band more and probably write up something for my art blog newsletter. I'm already listening to a Spotify playlist of their stuff now!

[syndicated profile] 70sscifiart_feed

Mark Salwowski's 1998 cover to 'Beige Planet Mars,' a Doctor Who spin-off novel


Angus McKie’s album art for Rondò Veneziano’s ‘Venice in Peril,’ 1983.


Virgil Finlay, 'Martian Canal'


Darrell K Sweet, for 'Menace Under Marswood,' by Sterling Lanier, 1983

Gondolas in retro sci-fi art: It’s a subgenre of 70s sci-fi art I’m making happen through sheer force of will. That last one even has a rudder, that’s how hard I’m working. Credits in captions.

[syndicated profile] 70sscifiart_feed


You claim to cover science fiction of the 1970s, but I am disappointed to see nothing of Dynomutt. Please rectify this oversight.

Pluh

Jul. 13th, 2025 15:30
[syndicated profile] urban_feed
[A meme] TikTok sound, Originally the word was meant as a means of a of [bleeping] out sexual references, but is now used as [a meme] or a way to annoy people.

In a Word

Jul. 13th, 2025 06:35
[syndicated profile] futilitycloset_feed

Posted by Greg Ross

ergophobia
n. an aversion to work

isolato
n. a person who is physically or spiritually isolated from their times or society

hebetate
v. to make dull or obtuse

suspiration
n. a long, deep sigh

Drawn from the last line of a 1951 poem by Pierre Béarn, the French phrase métro, boulot, dodo describes the monotony of workday life: Métro refers to a subway commute, boulot is an informal word for work, and dodo is baby talk for sleep.

Anna Kaloustian wrote in the Yale Herald, “No English expression manages to quite grasp its prosaic implication, its banality.”

*The Monastic World*

Jul. 13th, 2025 06:42
[syndicated profile] marginal_revolution_feed

Posted by Tyler Cowen

The author is Andrew Jotischky, and the subtitle is A 1,200-Year History.  He writes very well and also can think in terms of organizations.  Excerpt:

As such, monasteries were complex institutions.  The demands of property ownership included systems for collection and receipt of rents, and thus methods of accountancy and management of finances and human resources.  But even the fulfilment of their spiritual functions of communal worship required internal systems and management.  The correct performance of the liturgy required training in chant and sacramental theology.  It also required service books and specific sacred objects for celebration of the eucharist.  In order to fulfil the expectation of constant prayer and praise, the liturgical offices were spread across day and night, which in turn meant that light — from candles or oil, depending on the region — was needed for several hours.  All of these items had to be produced or procured.  Monasteries thus needed supplies ranging from bread to wine to wax and parchment, and the technical know-how to process these.  Moreover, the schools that monasteries developed to train their own monks also provided opportunities for a largely non-literate society to educate their young.

An excellent book, Yale University Press, and currently priced below $15 in hardcover.

The post *The Monastic World* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Jump Jim Crow!

Jul. 12th, 2025 23:51
cybernatic_cat: (aggressive)
[personal profile] cybernatic_cat
Ну вот уже и нашу мирную субурбовскую деревню, почти полностью респовскую и почти целиком белую - постигло.

Одна из иллюстраций оттуда: "сучка крашеная!" (логин в пейсбук потребуют, но можно просто скипнуть, иначе я бы и сам не смог посмотреть). Это буквально в миле от моего дома, даже меньше.

У нас, конечно, не сильно удачное соседство: Брентвуд хоть и чёрт знает как далеко от известных обезьянников и лепрозориев, типа Oakland, Stockton и SF, да ещё и без линий общественного транспорта (чему я всегда дико радовался) - но буквально через дорогу Antioch, немаленькое ниггерское гетто. Но до вчерашнего дня особых проблем не наблюдалось от слова совсем. В Nеxtdoor каждый день мелькала туева хуча жалоб на беспредел внутри самого Антиоха - но шерифа проблемы ниггеров, как известно, не волнуют. И наша белая деревня жила своей скучной и мирной деревенской жизнью. Основные темы в ND были - котик/собачка потерялись, котик/собачка нашлись, а посоветуйте хорошего садовника/сантехника/телемастера (гусары, жрать и молчать). Именно та Америка, о которой я мечтал всю жизнь.

Но, судя по всему, всё хорошее рано или поздно заканчивается.

Достал из сейфов шотган и пистолет, загнал патроны в патронники. Надеюсь, что применять не придётся, не хотелось бы. Но ежели чего - применю без особых колебаний. Ибо лучше пусть меня судят двенадцать, нежели несут шестеро.

А, ну и вот что ещё забыл сообщить: в тредах Nextdoor узрел новую для себя аббревиатуру: YN. Нет, это не Yuri Naumov :). Это означает "young niggers". Вот именно то, что у нас вчера имело место.

А ещё сильнее я охренел, когда выяснил, что это практически официальный термин. Там в аннотации, конечно, N-word целомудренно заменен хер пойми на что (Skantless - ???), но мы-то понимаем.

Короче, лично я на следующих выборах, любого уровня, проголосую за любого, кто пообещает вернуть Jim Crow Laws. Ну или хотя бы гарантирует ребятам из law enforcement их полномочия обеспечивать эти самые law and order. Рыжий вроде бы пытается действовать в этом направлении, но хотелось бы более эффективных мер.
[syndicated profile] marginal_revolution_feed

Posted by Tyler Cowen

The greater acceptance of gay, compared with transgender, people in Western countries may be a result of a specific trajectory—where queer rights was centered by and around White, middle class, gender-conforming gay men—and may not generalize to other places. Two surveys of respondents in 23 countries (Ns∼ = 500 or 1,000 per country) showed that bias toward gay and transgender people is lower in Western (vs. non-Western) countries, but that the relative bias changes as a function of region: there is greater acceptance of gay (vs. transgender) people in most Western countries, whereas the reverse is true in most non-Western countries. Analyses of legal frameworks (N = 193) show that recognition of same-gender unions is prevalent in Western countries but virtually nonexistent elsewhere, whereas recognition of gender marker changes is prevalent throughout the world. Overall, in the most intolerant places, transgender people are relatively more accepted than gay people.

Here is the recent article by Jaimi L. Napier.  Via a loyal MR reader.

The post Greater Bias Toward Transgender People Compared to Gay Men and Lesbian Women Is WEIRD appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Big Beautiful Bald Boarding

Jul. 12th, 2025 17:51
[syndicated profile] jwz_blog_feed

Posted by jwz

Bald Baby J.D. Vance Meme Can Now Be Your Boarding Pass:

James Steinberg has designed an app that allows you to change the background your digital airplane boarding pass to display a now-infamous image of the vice president as a bald, bearded baby-man. [...]

He says there was no issue at security. "The TSA tried not to show emotion but looked mildly amused," Steinberg says. "Maybe I should try in a less liberal airport."

As someone who, regrettably, has a lot of experience with Apple Wallet, I was curious how he's altering the picture, since pkpass files are signed. He's not! He's taking your info and issuing a new pkpass with the same content.

One of the cool features of pkpass is that they receive push updates, so that, for example, if the time of the event / flight changes, your pass can be updated remotely and notify you. Bald Boarding almost certainly breaks that connection.

Previously.

bum fuck egypt

Jul. 12th, 2025 15:39
[syndicated profile] urban_feed
A term used to describe any middle-of-nowhere, backwoods area, particularly one that is a long distance away. Derived from [bumfuck], also used to describe a similar location. The addition of "egypt" originated in the Midwest, describing the "Little Egypt" region of Illinois, an extremely [rural area] compared to the urban Northern Illinois. See also [BFE].

Bus Bunching

Jul. 12th, 2025 14:10
[syndicated profile] futilitycloset_feed

Posted by Greg Ross

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bus_bunching_graph.svg
Image: Wikimedia Commons

When two or more buses are scheduled at regular intervals on the same route, planners may expect that each will make the same progress, pausing at each stop for the same interval (1). But if Bus B is delayed by traffic congestion (2), it incurs a penalty: Because it arrives late to the next stop, it will pick up some passengers who’d planned to take Bus C (3). Accommodating these passengers delays Bus B even longer, putting it even further behind schedule. Meanwhile, Bus C begins to make unusually good progress (4), as it now arrives at each stop to find a smaller crowd than expected.

As the workload piles up on the foremost bus and the one behind it catches up, eventually the result (5) is that the two buses run in a platoon, arriving together at each stop. Sometimes Bus C even overtakes Bus B.

What to do? Planners can set minimum and maximum amounts of time to be spent at each stop, and buses might even be told to skip certain stops during crowded runs. Passengers might be encouraged to wait for a following bus, with the inducement that it’s less crowded. Northern Arizona University improved its service by abandoning the idea of a schedule altogether and delaying buses at certain stops in order to maintain even spacing. One thing that doesn’t work: adding vehicles to the route — which might, at first blush, have seemed the obvious solution.

типа дата

Jul. 12th, 2025 09:59
juan_gandhi: (Default)
[personal profile] juan_gandhi
35 лет назад Ельцин вышел из КПСС. 

Blame Canada! Measles Edition

Jul. 12th, 2025 11:18
[syndicated profile] marginal_revolution_feed

Posted by Alex Tabarrok

Polimath has a good post on measles. The recent spike in U.S. cases has drawn alarm. As the New York Times reports:

There have now been more measles cases in 2025 than in any other year since the contagious virus was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000, according to new data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The grim milestone represents an alarming setback for the country’s public health and heightens concerns that if childhood vaccination rates do not improve, deadly outbreaks of measles — once considered a disease of the past — will become the new normal.

But as Polimath notes, U.S. vaccination rates remain above 90% nationally. The problem isn’t broad domestic anti-vax sentiment but rather concentrated gaps in coverage, often within insular religious communities. These local shortfalls do explain how outbreaks spread once they begin—but how do they begin in the first place, given these communities are islands within a largely vaccinated country? Polimath says blame Canada! (and Mexico!)

The greater concern in my mind is not the problem of low measles vaccination coverage in the United States, but among our immediate neighbors. In Ontario, the MMR vaccination rate among 7-year-olds is under 70%. As in the examples above, this rate seems to be particularly low “in specific communities”, whatever that is supposed to mean. This has resulted in the ongoing spread of measles such that Ontario’s measles infection rate is 40 times higher than the United States. Canada officially “eliminated” measles in 1998. But with vaccine rates as low as they are, it seems like Canada is at risk for losing that “elimination” status and becoming an international source for measles.

Similarly, Mexico is having a measles outbreak that is substantially worse than the US outbreak. Importantly, the Mexican outbreak has been the worst in the Chihuahua province (over 3,000 cases), which borders Texas and New Mexico.

I’m less interested in blame than in the useful reminder that not all politics is American politics. Vaccination rates have dipped worldwide and not in response to U.S. politics or RFK Jr. In fact, despite RFK Jr. the U.S. is doing better than some of its North American and European peers. Outbreaks here may be triggered by cross-border exposure, not failures in U.S. public health alone. Not all politics is American—and not all American outcomes are made in America.

Hat tip: the excellent Stephen Landry.

The post Blame Canada! Measles Edition appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Про прилеты

Jul. 12th, 2025 14:43
ratomira: (Default)
[personal profile] ratomira
Ночью обстреляли Львов, Луцк и Черновцы. В Черновцах 2 погибших.

Всю восточную часть Украины обстреливают постоянно. В Днепропетровской области за последние сутки 4 погибших (двое в Синельниковском районе, двое - в Никополе).

В Киеве только за июнь в обстрелах погиб 41 человек. При этом свидетели "в Киеве в ДТП умирает больше, чем от прилетов" до сих пор толкают всем свою мантру. По Киеву не нашла данных, но по всей Киевской области погибло 17 человек за июнь в ДТП.

То есть уже где-то в 3-4 раза от прилетов погибает больше людей, чем в ДТП, в Киеве. А в Харькове, Запорожье, Одессе, Днепре еще больше прилетов.
[syndicated profile] marginal_revolution_feed

Posted by Tyler Cowen

This paper presents a general framework for conducting efficient inference on parameters derived from unstructured data, which include text, images, audio, and video. Economists have long used unstructured data by first extracting low-dimensional structured features (e.g., the topic or sentiment of a text), since the raw data are too high-dimensional and uninterpretable to include directly in empirical analyses. The rise of deep neural networks has accelerated this practice by greatly reducing the costs of extracting structured data at scale, but neural networks do not make generically unbiased predictions. This potentially propagates bias to the downstream estimators that incorporate imputed structured data, and the availability of different off-the-shelf neural networks with different biases moreover raises p-hacking concerns. To address these challenges, we reframe inference with unstructured data as a problem of missing structured data, where structured variables are imputed from high-dimensional unstructured inputs. This perspective allows us to apply classic results from semiparametric inference, leading to estimators that are valid, efficient, and robust. We formalize this approach with MAR-S, a framework that unifies and extends existing methods for debiased inference using machine learning predictions, connecting them to familiar problems such as causal inference. Within this framework, we develop robust and efficient estimators for both descriptive and causal estimands and address challenges like inference with aggregated and transformed missing structured data-a common scenario that is not covered by existing work. These methods-and the accompanying implementation package-provide economists with accessible tools for constructing unbiased estimators using unstructured data in a wide range of applications, as we demonstrate by re-analyzing several influential studies.

That is from a recent paper by Jacob Carlson and Melissa Dell.  Via Kevin Bryan.

The post A Unifying Framework for Robust and Efficient Inference with Unstructured Data appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Surveillance is growing

Jul. 11th, 2025 17:55
[syndicated profile] marginal_revolution_feed

Posted by Tyler Cowen

California residents who launched fireworks for the 4th of July have tickets coming in the mail, thanks to police drones that were taking note. One resident, for example, racked up $100,000 in fines last summer due to the illegal use of fireworks. “If you think you got away with it, you probably didn’t,” said Sacramento Fire Department Captain Justin Sylvia. “What may have been a $1,000 fine for one occurrence last year could now be $30,000 because you lit off so many.” Homeowners who weren’t even present at the property also have tickets coming in the mail due to the social host ordinance.

Here is the source.  Elsewhere (NYT):

Hertz and other agencies are increasingly relying on scanners that use high-res imaging and A.I. to flag even tiny blemishes, and customers aren’t happy…

Developed by a company called UVeye, the scanning system works by capturing thousands of high-resolution images from all angles as a vehicle passes through a rental lot’s gates at pickup and return. A.I. then compares those images and flags any discrepancies.

The system automatically creates and sends damage reports, Ms. Spencer said. An employee reviews the report only if a customer flags an issue after receiving the bill. She added that fewer than 3 percent of vehicles scanned by the A.I. system show any billable damage.

I await the next installment in this series.

The post Surveillance is growing appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Русская латиница

Jul. 11th, 2025 12:09
vak: (Аристипп)
[personal profile] vak
Раз уж "русский мир" движется в закат, пофантазируем насчёт перехода на латиницу. Йотированные гласные отметим умляутом.
Cyrillic Latin     Notes
---------------------------------------------
А а A a Open vowel, like "father".
Б б B b Voiced bilabial stop.
В в V v Voiced labiodental fricative.
Г г G g Voiced velar stop.
Д д D d Voiced alveolar stop.
Е е Ë ë Iotated "e", like "yes". Implies iotization (including glide) initially/after vowels; palatalizes preceding consonant.
Ё ё Ö ö Iotated "o", like "yoke". Implies iotization (including glide) initially/after vowels; palatalizes preceding consonant.
Ж ж Ž ž Voiced retroflex fricative, like "measure".
З з Z z Voiced alveolar fricative.
И и I i Close front vowel, like "machine". Palatalizes preceding consonant.
Й й J j Palatal approximant, like "yes". Used explicitly in diphthongs or where "й" appears.
К к K k Voiceless velar stop.
Л л L l Alveolar lateral; softness implied by following vowel.
М м M m Bilabial nasal.
Н н N n Alveolar nasal; softness implied by following vowel.
О о O o Mid-back vowel, like "or" (unstressed reduces).
П п P p Voiceless bilabial stop.
Р р R r Trilled alveolar, like Spanish "rr".
С с S s Voiceless alveolar fricative.
Т т T t Voiceless alveolar stop.
У у U u Close back vowel, like "boot".
Ф ф F f Voiceless labiodental fricative.
Х х H h Voiceless velar fricative, like Scottish "loch".
Ц ц C c Voiceless alveolar affricate, like "tsar".
Ч ч Č č Voiceless palato-alveolar affricate, like "cheese" but softer.
Ш ш Š š Voiceless retroflex fricative, like "sh" in "ship".
Щ щ Ş ş Long voiceless palato-alveolar fricative, like "fresh cheese".
Ъ ъ ' Indicates hard consonant separation; apostrophe for juncture.
Ы ы Y y Close central vowel, like "bit" but backer. Hardens preceding consonant.
Ь ь ´ (acute) Placed over the consonant (e.g. t́) to indicate palatalization/softening.
Э э E e Mid-front vowel, like "bet". Does not palatalize preceding consonant.
Ю ю Ü ü Iotated "u", like "you". Implies iotization (including glide) initially/after vowels; palatalizes preceding consonant.
Я я Ä ä Iotated "a", like "yard". Implies iotization (including glide) initially/after vowels; palatalizes preceding consonant.
Мягкие согласные обозначим акутом. Но, как предложил [personal profile] spamsink , перед i ë ö ü ä акут можно не ставить, ведь и так понятно, что согласная смягчается.
бь      B́ b́
вь V́ v́
гь Ǵ ǵ
дь D́ d́
зь Ź ź
кь Ḱ ḱ
ль Ĺ ĺ
мь Ḿ ḿ
нь Ń ń
пь Ṕ ṕ
рь Ŕ ŕ
сь Ś ś
ть T́ t́
фь F́ f́
хь H́ h́
ць Ć ć
Примеры:
  • Украина → Ukraina
  • Киев → Kiëv
  • Здравствуйте → Zdravstvujt́e
  • Спасибо → Spasibo
  • Пиво → Pivo
  • Да → Da
  • Нет → Ńet
  • Борщ → Borş
  • Царь → Caŕ
  • Щи → Şi
  • Я люблю русскую кухню → Ä ĺubĺu russkuü kuhńu
  • Щекочихин-Крестовоздвиженский → Şekočihin-Kŕestovozdviženskij

chipotle bag

Jul. 11th, 2025 14:46
[syndicated profile] urban_feed
someone with lots of [tattoos], [to the point] they look like a chipotle bag (which has lots of words and [doodles] on it)
[syndicated profile] marginal_revolution_feed

Posted by Alex Tabarrok

In 1957, the Soviet Union launched Sputnik triggering a national reckoning in the United States. Americans questioned the strength of their education system, scientific capabilities, industrial base—even their national character. The country’s self-image as a global leader was shaken, creating the Sputnik moment.

The response was swift and ambitious. NSF funding tripled in a year and increased by a factor of more than ten by the end of the decade. The National Defense Education Act overhauled universities and created new student loan programs for foreign language students and engineers. High schools redesigned curricula around the “new math.” Homework doubled. NASA and ARPA (later DARPA) were created in 1958. NASA’s budget rocketed upwards to nearly 5% of all federal spending and R&D spending overall increased to well over 10% of federal spending. Immigration rules were liberalized (perhaps not in direct response to Sputnik but as part of the ethos of the time). Foreign talent was attracted. Tariff barriers continued to fall and the US engaged with international organizations and promoted globalization..

The U.S. answered Sputnik with bold competition not an aggrieved whine that America had been ripped off and abused.

America’s response to rising scientific competition from China—symbolized by DeepSeek’s R1 matching OpenAI’s o1—has been very different. The DeepSeek Moment has been met not with resolve and competition but with anxiety and retreat.

Trump has proposed slashing the NIH budget by nearly 40% and NSF by 56%. The universities have been attacked, creating chaos for scientific funding. International collaboration is being strangled by red tape. Foreign scientists are leaving or staying away. Tariffs have hit highs not seen since the Great Depression and the US has moved away from the international order.

Some of this is new and some of it is an acceleration of already existing trends. In Launching the Innovation Renaissance, for example, I said that by the Federal budget numbers, America is a warfare-welfare state not an innovation state. However, to be fair, there are some bright spots. Market‑driven research might partially offset public cuts. Big‑tech R&D now exceeds $200 billion annually—more than the entire federal government spending on R&D. Not everything we did post-Sputnik was wise nor is everything we are doing today foolish.

Nevertheless, the contrast is stark: Sputnik spurred investment and ambition. America doubled down. DeepSeek has sparked defensiveness and retreat. We appear to be folding. 

Question of the hour. Why has America responded so differently to similar challenges? Can understanding that pivot help to reverse it? Show your work.

The post The Sputnik vs. DeepSeek Moment: Why the Difference? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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Posted by Tyler Cowen

That is the theme of my latest Free Press column.  Rather than present the argument again, let me move directly to the trolling part of the piece:

Even the Soviet Union had some positive and forward-looking elements to its socialist doctrine. The stated goal was to overtake the United States, not “degrowth.” You were supposed to have kids to support the glory of communism, not give up on the idea because the world was too dreadful. Socialist labor was supposed to be fun and rewarding, not something to whine about. Furthermore, there were top performers in every category, including in the schools. Moscow State University was a self-consciously elite institution that intended to remain as such. However skewed the standards may have been, there was an intense desire to measure the best and (sometimes) reward them with foreign travel, as in chess and pianism. In an often distorted and unfair way, some parts of the Soviet system respected the notion of progress. For all the horrors of Soviet communism, at least along a few dimensions it had better ideals than some of those from today, including the undesirability of having children, and a dislike of economic growth.

There is much more at the link.

The post The revival of socialism is an example of negative emotional contagion appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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Posted by Tyler Cowen

I asked o3 pro about the Genius Act, and it gave me this answer (there is more at the link), consistent with other responses I have heard:

The statute’s policy goal is to keep a payment‑stablecoin issuer from morphing into a fractional‑reserve bank or a trading house while still giving it enough freedom to:

  • hold the specified reserve assets and manage their maturities;

  • use overnight Treasuries repo markets for cash management (explicitly allowed);

  • provide custody of customers’ coins or private keys.

Everything else—consumer lending, merchant acquiring, market‑making, proprietary trading, staking, you name it—would require prior approval and would be subject to additional capital/liquidity rules.

Recall also that the stablecoins are by law prohibited from paying interest, though the backing assets, such as T-Bills, will pay interest to the stablecoin issuer.  Thus when nominal interest rates are high, the issuer will earn a decent spread and have no problem covering costs.  When nominal interest rates are low or zero, fees on stablecoin issuance might be required, otherwise there is no way to cover the basic costs of operation.

What will be the costs of intermediation?  In the financial sector as a whole, they are arguably about two percent.  For money market funds, however, they are closer to 0.2 percent.  (Since these entities will be strictly regulated, we cannot estimate fees by looking at current major stablecoin issuers.  Across some different inquiries, o3 pro gave me intermediation cost estimates ranging from 0.8 percent to 3 percent.)  Whatever number will be the case here, the intermediaries may need to resort to fees if market interest rates are very low, in order to break even.  That may in turn induce individuals to yank money out of the accounts  — who wants to keep paying those fees?

Perhaps a more likely problem would stem from interest rates that are fairly high.  In that case, why hold zero-yielding stablecoins?  The sector will again contract, though in an orderly fashion.

Perhaps the sector and its intermediaries are most stable for some band of interest rates “in the middle”?

Inspections of the backing assets are supposed to take place every month, though the regulator can take a look any time.  I am not sure what is the optimal frequency.  But I worry there is sometimes no “efficiency wage profit margin” to induce responsible behavior.  After all, the issuers have no other lines of business and no other sources of revenue.  Non-pecuniary competition for deposits might reduce profits further (“come get your free toaster!”).  Thus being kicked out of the sector is no major penalty (for those parameter values), which puts a significant burden on the possibility of legal and felony punishments.  It can be hard to pull the trigger on those, however.

If interest rates are somewhat higher though, the desire to keep that profit will create an economic incentive for responsible behavior, above and beyond the fear of legal penalties.

As I understand the legislation, the level of interest rates seems important for sector stability and also for the size of the sector.  That is because there are no interest payments on stablecoins that can adjust with the underlying rates on the T-Bills.  Perhaps that feature of the legislation should be reconsidered?  Or perhaps issuer competition across non-pecuniary yields on the accounts will serve a sufficiently comparable purpose?

The post What does one hundred percent reserves for stablecoins mean? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Great and Small

Jul. 11th, 2025 06:03
[syndicated profile] futilitycloset_feed

Posted by Greg Ross

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Beethoven_walk_in_the_nature.jpg

One could not think of Aristotle or Beethoven multiplying 3,472,701 by 99,999 without making a mistake, nor could one think of him remembering the range of this or that railway share for two years, or the number of ten-penny nails in a hundred weight, or the freight on lard from Galveston to Rotterdam. And by the same token one could not imagine him expert at billiards, or at grouse-shooting, or at golf, or at any other of the idiotic games at which what are called successful men commonly divert themselves. In his great study of British genius, Havelock Ellis found that an incapacity for such petty expertness was visible in almost all first rate men. They are bad at tying cravats. They do not understand the fashionable card games. They are puzzled by book-keeping. They know nothing of party politics. In brief, they are inert and impotent in the very fields of endeavour that see the average men’s highest performances, and are easily surpassed by men who, in actual intelligence, are about as far below them as the Simidae.

— H.L. Mencken, In Defense of Women, 1918

Nested Prime Factorization (NPF)

Jul. 10th, 2025 21:45
vak: (Робот 1)
[personal profile] vak
Появилась новая версия Грока, ну я её сразу и озадачил.

> Please propose a new revolutionary method of representing integer numbers.

The "Nested Prime Factorization" (NPF) system is a revolutionary method for representing integers that transforms the traditional prime factorization into a recursive, nested structure. This approach not only highlights the multiplicative nature of numbers but also creates a tree-like representation that is particularly suited for modern computational paradigms, such as tree-based machine learning models, recursive algorithms, and efficient storage of large numbers in hierarchical data structures. Unlike conventional positional systems (e.g., decimal or binary), which focus on additive place values, NPF emphasizes multiplication and recursion, making it easier to visualize and manipulate number theory properties like primality, exponents, and factor relationships. It is compact for highly composite numbers or high powers, reduces repetition in representation, and enables novel operations like "unfolding" the tree for factorization or "folding" for synthesis.

How the NPF System Works

1. Base Cases:
  • 0 is represented as ∅ (empty set, symbolizing absence).
  • 1 is represented as [1] (a singleton leaf).
  • Negative integers are prefixed with a minus sign (-) applied to the representation of their absolute value (e.g., -n is -[representation of n]).
2. Positive Integers (n > 1):
  • Start with the canonical prime factorization of n = p1^α1 * p2^α2 * ... * pk^αk, where p1 < p2 < ... < pk are primes and αi > 0.
  • Represent n as a list [R(α1), R(α2), ..., R(αk)], where R(αi) is the recursive representation of the exponent αi.
  • Recurse on each exponent αi until reaching base cases (1 or primes, which are leaves).
  • Primes are represented as themselves in leaves, but if an exponent is prime, it is left as is unless further decomposed (primes stop recursion).
3. Recursion Rule:
  • If an exponent α is 1, it is [1].
  • If α is prime, it is the prime value (e.g., 2, 3, 5).
  • If α is composite, apply the NPF recursively to α.
This creates a nested list structure, which can be serialized in text using brackets or JSON-like notation for clarity. The structure is unique for each n, ensuring bijectivity.

Why Revolutionary?

  • Hierarchical Insight: The nested structure mirrors the "building blocks" of numbers, making it intuitive for educational purposes, number theory analysis, and AI applications (e.g., input to graph neural networks for predicting properties like divisibility).
  • Compactness for Large Numbers: High exponents are nested deeply rather than repeated, reducing representation length compared to linear factorization strings. For example, 2^{64} would be a deeply nested [ [...] ] rather than "2^64".
  • Operational Efficiency: Arithmetic can be performed recursively—multiplication concatenates or nests lists, addition requires "merging" trees with carries resolved via recursion. This could accelerate computations in symbolic math software or quantum simulation, where nested structures align with qubit entanglement models.
  • Extension to Other Domains: Easily adapts to rationals (numerator/denominator as two trees) or complexes, and supports error-resilient encoding by adding redundancy in nests.

Examples

  • 0: ∅
  • 1: [1]
  • -1: -[1]
  • 2 (prime): 2
  • 3 (prime): 3
  • 4 = 2^2: [2] (since exponent 2 is prime)
  • -4: -[2]
  • 6 = 2^1 * 3^1: [ [1], [1] ]
  • 8 = 2^3: [3] (exponent 3 is prime)
  • 12 = 2^2 * 3^1: [2, [1]]
  • 16 = 2^4 = 2^(2^2): [[2]] (recursive on exponent 4 = 2^2)
  • 1200 = 2^4 * 3^1 * 5^2: [ [2], [1], 2 ] (exponent 4 = [2], 1 = [1], 2 = 2)
  • 65536 = 2^16 = 2^(2^4): [[[2]]] (deep nesting for 16 = 2^4, 4 = 2^2, 2 = 2)
  • -65536: -[[[2]]]

Comparison with Traditional Systems

The table below compares NPF with binary, decimal, and factorial representations for select numbers, highlighting length (characters in serialized form) and key advantages.
| Number | Binary      | Decimal | Factorial     | NPF (Lists) | Notes on NPF Advantage 
|--------|-------------|---------|---------------|-------------|------------------------
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1!0 | [1] | Minimal nesting for unity.
| 4 | 100 | 4 | 2!0 | [2] | Reveals prime exponent directly.
| 8 | 1000 | 8 | 2!1!0 | [3] | Compact for power-of-2.
| 12 | 1100 | 12 | 2!2!0 | [2,[1]] | Shows factors separately.
| 1200 | 10010110000 | 1200 | 4!3!2!1!0!0 | [[2],[1],2] | Nested for exponents, shorter than linear factorization (2^4*3^1*5^2 = 15 chars).
| 65536 | (17 bits) | 65536 | Long sequence | [[[2]]] | Highly compact for exponential towers; binary requires 17 chars, NPF uses 7.

This system opens doors to new computational techniques, such as recursive traversal for fast GCD (by comparing nests) or visualization as trees for educational tools. Future extensions could include probabilistic nesting for approximate representations in AI training data.
juan_gandhi: (Default)
[personal profile] juan_gandhi

Шаря по своему компу, обнаружил фотки 2005-го года; дело было в марте. Так что больше 20 лет. Я тогда увольнялся. А чо? Да я б в Борланде и дальше сидел, но это было очень глупо. 7 лет на одной должности простого инженера (а что я им всю инфраструктуру локализации зафигачил - это как? А никак. Блат нужен) и на студенческой зарплате, 80 тыс. Так что в конце концов ушёл. И вот мы тут отмечали это дело, в ресторане на вершине горы. Это если вы из Сан Хосе едете в Санта Круз, то вот самая вершина, и там два ресторана; старый и новый. Старый так себе, а новый был норм. Он был новый в 2005-м году.

Слева: Лена Бершадская, потом одна хорошая женщина забыл как звать, потом я, потом Крис Щинг, дальше не знаю.

Справа (слева направо): не помню, кто такой (новенький); Джулия Ли, Хенни Лин, Сандип (индийский принц), одна новая китаянка (имя забыл), Лиу Швэ (капитан китайской армии), Влад Протасов, Зоя Салистра.

Тут я одной правой наяриваю "entertainer". Ресторан с инструментом, э. А я тогда... Ладно.

Вот мы тут все ещё раз. Справа от меня Фред Меркурио Monasterio.

Вообще можно было бы и восстановить имена. У меня где-то лежит телефонная книга Борланда за тот год.

DHS's war on skateboarding

Jul. 11th, 2025 00:36
[syndicated profile] jwz_blog_feed

Posted by jwz

DHS is urging local police to consider a wide range of protest activity as violent tactics, including mundane acts like riding a bike or livestreaming a police encounter:

Blaming intense media coverage and backlash to the US military deployment in Los Angeles, DHS expects the demonstrations to "continue and grow across the nation" as protesters focused on other issues shift to immigration, following a broad "embracement of anti-ICE messaging."

Don't threaten me with a good time.

The guidance urges officers to consider a range of nonviolent behavior and common protest gear -- like masks, flashlights, and cameras -- as potential precursors to violence [...] Protesters on bicycles, skateboards, or even "on foot" are framed as potential "scouts" conducting reconnaissance or searching for "items to be used as weapons." Livestreaming is listed alongside "doxxing" as a "tactic" for "threatening" police. Online posters are cast as ideological recruiters -- or as participants in "surveillance sharing."

One list of "violent tactics" shared by the Los Angeles -- based Joint Regional Intelligence Center -- part of a post-9/11 fusion network -- includes both protesters' attempts to avoid identification and efforts to identify police.

That can't be correct. Skateboarding, I have been reliably informed, is not a crime.

In advance of protests, agencies increasingly rely on intelligence forecasting to identify groups seen as ideologically subversive or tactically unpredictable. Demonstrators labeled "transgressive" may be monitored, detained without charges, or met with force.

Previously, previously, previously, previously, previously.

[syndicated profile] googlechromereleases_feed

Posted by Andy Wu

The Dev channel is being updated to OS version 16328.18.0 (Browser version 139.0.7258.33) for most ChromeOS devices. 

If you find new issues, please let us know one of the following ways

  1. File a bug

  2. Visit our ChromeOS communities

    1. General: Chromebook Help Community

    2. Beta Specific: ChromeOS Beta Help Community

  3. Report an issue or send feedback on Chrome

Interested in switching channels? Find out how.

Andy Wu,
Google ChromeOS

Grok 4 on economics

Jul. 10th, 2025 17:55
[syndicated profile] marginal_revolution_feed

Posted by Tyler Cowen

My prompt:

What is the best analysis of the incidence of the corporate income tax? How much falls on capital, labor, and the consumer, respectively? In the U.S. What does it work out that way?

Here is the answer, plus my response and its follow-up.  For one thing, it is the existence of the non-corporate sector, where capital may be allocated, that is key to getting off on the right foot on this question…

The post Grok 4 on economics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Корутины в Питоне

Jul. 10th, 2025 12:21
vak: (Знайка)
[personal profile] vak
В языке Python с некоторого момента появились сопрограммы (coroutines), реализованные ключевыми словами async и await. Эта фича очень удобна для симуляции всяких процессов. В качестве примера забацаем классических обедающих философов.

Пять чуваков сидят за круглым столом, перед каждым тарелка. Между тарелками лежат вилки. Каждый философ некоторое время размышляет, после чего желает подкрепиться. Для еды ему нужны обе вилки, левая и правая. Если вилки заняты соседями, приходится ждать когда они освободятся.

Вот код на Питоне: Результат:

Odd Job

Jul. 10th, 2025 18:06
[syndicated profile] futilitycloset_feed

Posted by Greg Ross

A problem by Russian mathematician Viktor Prasolov:

On a piece of graph paper, is it possible to paint 25 cells so that each of them has an odd number of painted neighbors? (“Neighboring” cells have a common side.)

Click for Answer</>

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